England: Premier LeagueSaturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Everton vCrystal Palace

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.75 goals expected
Everton 44%Draw 29%Crystal Palace 27%
How we get there
EvertonstepCrystal Palace
1.57Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.57Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.18

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Everton average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (21 competitive matches). Crystal Palace average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (27 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
4
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026

EvertonHome
Unavailable / doubtful
  • James Garner — Groin surgery during pre-season
    Expected return: Back in first-team training around Premier League opening week; Goodison News (25 Jul) says he is 'almost…
  • Jarrad Branthwaite — Hamstring (curtailed 2025/26); returned ahead of schedule
    Expected return: Already back — played 45 minutes v Bolton 25 Jul, rested v Stoke as a precaution.
  • Tyler Dibling — Minor knock
    Expected return: Missed Bolton, expected back v Stoke. Not a long-term concern.
  • Hayden Hackney — Knock carried over from end of 2025/26
    Expected return: Missed Dundee and Bolton; started/expected debut v Stoke 28 Jul. Effectively available.
Latest updates
  • 16 Aug · Return
    Branthwaite starts v Lille, completing his return from hamstring surgery
    Jarrad Branthwaite started alongside Tarkowski in the final pre-season fixture on 15 August and made a key clearance from a dangerous Lille delivery.
  • 16 Aug · Line-up
    Everton end pre-season with 1-1 draw v Lille; Ndiaye penalty, late equaliser
    Everton lined up Pickford; Röhl, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Hackney, Armstrong, Dewsbury-Hall; Dibling, Ndiaye, Barry.
Crystal PalaceAway
Unavailable / doubtful
  • Eddie Nketiah — Thigh injury (physioroom.com EPL injury table, fetched 30 Jul 2026). Appears to be a NEW issue picked up between 18 and 30 July - he scored a brace vs Swindon on 18 July…
    Expected return: Unverified - no return date published
  • Cheick Doucoure — Listed only as 'other' injury type on physioroom.com. History of a serious knee problem requiring surgery in Jan 2025; whether this is a recurrence is unverified
    Expected return: Unverified - no return date published
Latest updates
  • 13 Aug · Departure
    Brennan Johnson leaves Palace for Everton in swap deal after 26 goalless games
    Johnson, 25, completed a move to Everton on 11 August as the other half of the McNeil swap, signing a four-year deal.
  • 13 Aug · Signing
    Dwight McNeil joins Palace on four-year deal in straight swap with Everton
    McNeil, 26, completed a move to Selhurst Park on 11 August in a rare straight swap that took Brennan Johnson to Everton, signing a four-year contract. Fees were undisclosed.

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

EvertonHome4-2-3-1 · shape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKJordan Pickford
Defence
RBJake O'Brien (a centre-back filling in; club actively seeking a specialist RB)CBJames Tarkowski (c)CBJarrad BranthwaiteLBVitalii Mykolenko
Midfield
CMTim IroegbunamCMHayden Hackney / Merlin RöhlAMKiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Attack
RWTyler DiblingLWIliman Ndiaye (subject to Al-Hilal interest)STThierno Barry / Beto
Selection doubts
  • STRIKER — Thierno Barry vs Beto, genuinely wide open.
  • RIGHT-BACK — Everton's biggest hole.
Crystal PalaceAwayShape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKDean Henderson (captain since January 2026, undisputed No.1)
Defence
CBChris RichardsCBChadi RiadCBOscar Mingueza (if back three)RWB/RBDaniel MunozLWB/LBTyrick Mitchell
Midfield
CMAdam Wharton (transfer risk)CMJefferson Lerma or Will HughesAMYeremy PinoAMDaichi Kamada or Ismaila Sarr (transfer risk)
Attack
STJean-Philippe Mateta or Jorgen Strand Larsen
Selection doubts
  • VERY LOW CONFIDENCE - no actual starting-XI or formation data could be obtained for any of the four preseason matches.
  • Centre-forward: Jean-Philippe Mateta vs Jorgen Strand Larsen (club-record signing worth up to £48m, joined Feb 2026, scored a brace vs Swindon on 18 July).

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

TarkowskiTarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.0m3.6 pts
RichardsRichardsCRY · DEF · £5.0m3.6 pts
SarrSarrCRY · MID · £6.5m3.5 pts
All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Everton fixtures & form →Crystal Palace fixtures & form →

Everton vs Crystal Palace — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 10 May 2026, Everton have won 0, Crystal Palace have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
10 May 2026Crystal Palace 2–2 EvertonEngland: Premier League

The model's verdict for this fixture: Everton 44% · draw 29% · Crystal Palace 27%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Everton predictions & form →Crystal Palace predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.