Everton beat Crystal Palace 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Crystal Palace at 37% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Everton 36%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Everton had 16 shots (5 on target) to Crystal Palace's 11 (4), with 42% of the ball against 58%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 2.0, so Crystal Palace created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
No first-half forecast for this fixture.
Everton beat Crystal Palace 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Crystal Palace at 37% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Everton 36%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Everton had 16 shots (5 on target) to Crystal Palace's 11 (4), with 42% of the ball against 58%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 2.0, so Crystal Palace created the better chances and still lost the game.
Everton 2–0 Crystal Palace, played on 22 Aug 2026 in the ENGLAND: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Everton 36%, the draw 27% and Crystal Palace 37%.
Full-time: Possession 42%–58%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–2.0, Shots 16–11, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 11–8, Big chances 1–4, Corners 4–0, Saves 4–3, Fouls 5–15, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 0–1.
No. It finished 2–0, so Crystal Palace failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Crystal Palace or draw 64%, it finished Everton won (36% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 51%, it finished Missed.