How it finished
Malta and Gibraltar drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Malta at 63% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 22%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Malta had 17 shots (5 on target) to Gibraltar's 9 (2), with 62% of the ball against 38%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 0.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Malta vs Gibraltar?
Malta and Gibraltar drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Malta at 63% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 22%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Malta had 17 shots (5 on target) to Gibraltar's 9 (2), with 62% of the ball against 38%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 0.3.
What was the final score in Malta vs Gibraltar?
Malta 1–1 Gibraltar, played on 01 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Malta 63%, the draw 22% and Gibraltar 15%.
What were the stats in Malta vs Gibraltar?
Full-time: Possession 62%–38%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–0.3, Shots 17–9, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 12–4, Big chances 4–0, Corners 8–1, Saves 1–3, Fouls 16–8, Offsides 5–1, Yellow cards 3–1.
Did both teams score in Malta vs Gibraltar?
Yes — both Malta and Gibraltar scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 50% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Malta vs Gibraltar right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Malta to win 63%, it finished Draw (22% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 50%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Missed.