What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
No first-half forecast for this fixture.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Bawler's model rates this match: NEC Nijmegen are favoured (58% win probability vs 20% for Excelsior, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Excelsior (9.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives NEC Nijmegen 58%, the draw 22% and Excelsior 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 61% chance. That is based on NEC Nijmegen expecting 2.09 goals and Excelsior 1.18.
Over or under 2.5 goals in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 63%.