How it finished
Fenerbahce beat Lyon 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Lyon at 53% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Fenerbahce 23%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Lyon had 17 shots (6 on target) to Fenerbahce's 16 (7), with 59% of the ball against 41%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.6.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Lyon vs Fenerbahce?
Fenerbahce beat Lyon 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Lyon at 53% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Fenerbahce 23%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Lyon had 17 shots (6 on target) to Fenerbahce's 16 (7), with 59% of the ball against 41%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.6.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Fenerbahce?
Lyon 1–2 Fenerbahce, played on 26 Aug 2026 in the EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lyon 53%, the draw 25% and Fenerbahce 23%.
What were the stats in Lyon vs Fenerbahce?
Full-time: Possession 59%–41%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.6, Shots 17–16, Shots on target 6–7, Shots inside box 12–12, Big chances 2–2, Corners 5–7, Saves 6–5, Fouls 12–17, Offsides 3–2, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Lyon vs Fenerbahce?
Yes — both Lyon and Fenerbahce scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Lyon vs Fenerbahce right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lyon or draw 77%, it finished Fenerbahce won (23% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Lyon to win 53%, it finished Missed.