Real Betis beat Valencia 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Valencia at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Real Betis 31%. It forecast 2.7 goals; only 1 was scored. Valencia had 16 shots (3 on target) to Real Betis' 15 (3), with 42% of the ball against 58%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 0.7, so Valencia created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 58%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Real Betis beat Valencia 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Valencia at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Real Betis 31%. It forecast 2.7 goals; only 1 was scored. Valencia had 16 shots (3 on target) to Real Betis' 15 (3), with 42% of the ball against 58%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 0.7, so Valencia created the better chances and still lost the game.
Valencia 0–1 Real Betis, played on 25 Aug 2026 in the SPAIN: LaLiga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Valencia 42%, the draw 27% and Real Betis 31%.
Full-time: Possession 42%–58%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–0.7, Shots 16–15, Shots on target 3–3, Shots inside box 10–6, Big chances 1–2, Corners 8–2, Saves 2–3, Fouls 10–11, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
No. It finished 0–1, so Valencia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Valencia or draw 69%, it finished Real Betis won (31% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 50%, it finished Missed.