Académico de Viseu beat Estoril 2–1. Bawler's model had Académico de Viseu in front at 55% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Académico de Viseu had 15 shots (6 on target) to Estoril's 15 (9), with 51% of the ball against 49%. On expected goals it was 0.7 to 1.4, so Estoril created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Académico de Viseu beat Estoril 2–1. Bawler's model had Académico de Viseu in front at 55% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Académico de Viseu had 15 shots (6 on target) to Estoril's 15 (9), with 51% of the ball against 49%. On expected goals it was 0.7 to 1.4, so Estoril created the better chances and still lost the game.
Académico de Viseu 2–1 Estoril, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Académico de Viseu 55%, the draw 24% and Estoril 21%.
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–1.4, Shots 15–15, Shots on target 6–9, Shots inside box 7–10, Big chances 0–3, Corners 2–5, Saves 8–3, Fouls 24–9, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 3–1.
Yes — both Académico de Viseu and Estoril scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Académico de Viseu or draw 79%, it finished Académico de Viseu won (55% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 55%, it finished Landed.