Al Ettifaq and Al Khaleej drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Al Ettifaq at 41% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 2 were scored. Al Ettifaq had 23 shots (9 on target) to Al Khaleej's 11 (4), with 60% of the ball against 40%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 2.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Al Ettifaq and Al Khaleej drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Al Ettifaq at 41% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 2 were scored. Al Ettifaq had 23 shots (9 on target) to Al Khaleej's 11 (4), with 60% of the ball against 40%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 2.7.
Al Ettifaq 1–1 Al Khaleej, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Al Ettifaq 41%, the draw 26% and Al Khaleej 33%.
Full-time: Possession 60%–40%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–2.7, Shots 23–11, Shots on target 9–4, Shots inside box 15–9, Big chances 3–6, Corners 11–3, Saves 3–8, Fouls 11–10, Offsides 3–3, Yellow cards 3–4.
Yes — both Al Ettifaq and Al Khaleej scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Al Ettifaq or draw 67%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Landed.