How it finished
Arouca beat Maritimo 2–1. Bawler's model had Arouca in front at 45% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Arouca had 17 shots (7 on target) to Maritimo's 12 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 0.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Arouca vs Maritimo?
Arouca beat Maritimo 2–1. Bawler's model had Arouca in front at 45% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Arouca had 17 shots (7 on target) to Maritimo's 12 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 0.7.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Arouca 2–1 Maritimo, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Arouca 45%, the draw 26% and Maritimo 29%.
What were the stats in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–0.7, Shots 17–12, Shots on target 7–4, Shots inside box 10–8, Big chances 2–1, Corners 2–3, Saves 3–5, Fouls 8–9, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Yes — both Arouca and Maritimo scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Arouca vs Maritimo right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Arouca or draw 71%, it finished Arouca won (45% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.