How it finished
Nashville SC beat Austin FC 4–1. Bawler's model had Nashville SC in front at 49% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Austin FC had 11 shots (5 on target) to Nashville SC's 24 (11), with 43% of the ball against 57%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 4.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Austin FC vs Nashville SC?
Nashville SC beat Austin FC 4–1. Bawler's model had Nashville SC in front at 49% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Austin FC had 11 shots (5 on target) to Nashville SC's 24 (11), with 43% of the ball against 57%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 4.9.
What was the final score in Austin FC vs Nashville SC?
Austin FC 1–4 Nashville SC, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Austin FC 26%, the draw 26% and Nashville SC 49%.
What were the stats in Austin FC vs Nashville SC?
Full-time: Possession 43%–57%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–4.9, Shots 11–24, Shots on target 5–11, Shots inside box 7–21, Big chances 2–9, Corners 4–6, Saves 7–4, Fouls 5–10, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Austin FC vs Nashville SC?
Yes — both Austin FC and Nashville SC scored, finishing 1–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Austin FC vs Nashville SC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Nashville SC or draw 74%, it finished Nashville SC won (49% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.