How it finished
Chicago Fire FC beat New York City FC 2–1. Bawler's model had Chicago Fire FC in front at 51% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals and the match produced 3. Chicago Fire FC had 14 shots (4 on target) to New York City FC's 12 (6), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 1.4 to 1.4, so New York City FC created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?
Chicago Fire FC beat New York City FC 2–1. Bawler's model had Chicago Fire FC in front at 51% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals and the match produced 3. Chicago Fire FC had 14 shots (4 on target) to New York City FC's 12 (6), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 1.4 to 1.4, so New York City FC created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?
Chicago Fire FC 2–1 New York City FC, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Chicago Fire FC 51%, the draw 24% and New York City FC 25%.
What were the stats in Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?
Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.4, Shots 14–12, Shots on target 4–6, Shots inside box 9–6, Big chances 2–4, Corners 4–4, Saves 5–2, Fouls 18–10, Offsides 4–2, Yellow cards 4–0, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?
Yes — both Chicago Fire FC and New York City FC scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Chicago Fire FC or draw 75%, it finished Chicago Fire FC won (51% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 81%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Chicago Fire FC to win 51%, it finished Landed.