Hull City beat Coventry City 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Coventry City at 66% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Hull City 15%. It forecast 3.4 goals; only 1 was scored. Coventry City had 11 shots (3 on target) to Hull City's 6 (2), with 69% of the ball against 31%. On expected goals it was 1.3 to 0.7, so Coventry City created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Hull City beat Coventry City 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Coventry City at 66% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Hull City 15%. It forecast 3.4 goals; only 1 was scored. Coventry City had 11 shots (3 on target) to Hull City's 6 (2), with 69% of the ball against 31%. On expected goals it was 1.3 to 0.7, so Coventry City created the better chances and still lost the game.
Coventry City 0–1 Hull City, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Coventry City 66%, the draw 20% and Hull City 15%.
Full-time: Possession 69%–31%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–0.7, Shots 11–6, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 7–2, Big chances 1–1, Corners 6–2, Saves 1–3, Fouls 11–8, Offsides 3–0, Yellow cards 1–4.
No. It finished 0–1, so Coventry City failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Coventry City to win 66%, it finished Hull City won (15% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished No.