How it finished
Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3–1. Bawler's model had Crystal Palace in front at 46% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Crystal Palace had 13 shots (7 on target) to Nottingham Forest's 24 (6), with 43% of the ball against 57%. On expected goals it was 2.4 to 3.0, so Nottingham Forest created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3–1. Bawler's model had Crystal Palace in front at 46% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Crystal Palace had 13 shots (7 on target) to Nottingham Forest's 24 (6), with 43% of the ball against 57%. On expected goals it was 2.4 to 3.0, so Nottingham Forest created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Crystal Palace 46%, the draw 26% and Nottingham Forest 28%.
What were the stats in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Full-time: Possession 43%–57%, Expected goals (xG) 2.4–3.0, Shots 13–24, Shots on target 7–6, Shots inside box 11–17, Big chances 4–8, Corners 5–8, Saves 4–4, Fouls 11–10, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Yes — both Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Crystal Palace or draw 72%, it finished Crystal Palace won (46% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes.