How it finished
France and Italy drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured France at 72% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 17%. It forecast 3.3 goals; only 2 were scored. France had 18 shots (8 on target) to Italy's 14 (2), with 65% of the ball against 35%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won France vs Italy?
France and Italy drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured France at 72% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 17%. It forecast 3.3 goals; only 2 were scored. France had 18 shots (8 on target) to Italy's 14 (2), with 65% of the ball against 35%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.5.
What was the final score in France vs Italy?
France 1–1 Italy, played on 02 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with France 72%, the draw 17% and Italy 11%.
What were the stats in France vs Italy?
Full-time: Possession 65%–35%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.5, Shots 18–14, Shots on target 8–2, Shots inside box 8–10, Big chances 1–2, Corners 6–4, Saves 1–7, Fouls 9–10, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 2–4, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in France vs Italy?
Yes — both France and Italy scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for France vs Italy right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said France to win 72%, it finished Draw (17% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes.