Go Ahead Eagles and Sparta Rotterdam drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Go Ahead Eagles at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 6. Go Ahead Eagles had 17 shots (6 on target) to Sparta Rotterdam's 18 (8), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 2.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Go Ahead Eagles and Sparta Rotterdam drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Go Ahead Eagles at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 6. Go Ahead Eagles had 17 shots (6 on target) to Sparta Rotterdam's 18 (8), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 2.0.
Go Ahead Eagles 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Go Ahead Eagles 47%, the draw 24% and Sparta Rotterdam 29%.
Full-time: Possession 63%–37%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–2.0, Shots 17–18, Shots on target 6–8, Shots inside box 7–10, Big chances 1–6, Corners 9–6, Saves 5–5, Fouls 4–8, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 0–3.
Yes — both Go Ahead Eagles and Sparta Rotterdam scored, finishing 3–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Go Ahead Eagles or draw 71%, it finished Draw (24% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 65%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Landed.