Hull City and Everton drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Everton at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Hull City had 9 shots (5 on target) to Everton's 15 (7), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 1.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Hull City and Everton drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Everton at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Hull City had 9 shots (5 on target) to Everton's 15 (7), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 1.7.
Hull City 2–2 Everton, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Hull City 21%, the draw 24% and Everton 55%.
Full-time: Possession 35%–65%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–1.7, Shots 9–15, Shots on target 5–7, Shots inside box 9–11, Big chances 2–8, Corners 7–6, Saves 4–2, Fouls 15–4, Offsides 1–4, Yellow cards 2–0.
Yes — both Hull City and Everton scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Everton or draw 79%, it finished Draw (24% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 55%, it finished Landed.