Ipswich Town beat Fulham 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Fulham at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Ipswich Town 33%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Ipswich Town had 11 shots (5 on target) to Fulham's 13 (5), with 48% of the ball against 52%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 1.8, so Fulham created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Ipswich Town beat Fulham 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Fulham at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Ipswich Town 33%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Ipswich Town had 11 shots (5 on target) to Fulham's 13 (5), with 48% of the ball against 52%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 1.8, so Fulham created the better chances and still lost the game.
Ipswich Town 2–1 Fulham, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Ipswich Town 33%, the draw 26% and Fulham 40%.
Full-time: Possession 48%–52%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–1.8, Shots 11–13, Shots on target 5–5, Shots inside box 7–9, Big chances 2–3, Corners 2–5, Saves 3–3, Fouls 8–10, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 1–4.
Yes — both Ipswich Town and Fulham scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Fulham or draw 67%, it finished Ipswich Town won (33% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.