Levante and Sevilla drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Levante at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 6. Levante had 20 shots (8 on target) to Sevilla's 18 (5), with 57% of the ball against 43%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 2.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 61%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Levante and Sevilla drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Levante at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 6. Levante had 20 shots (8 on target) to Sevilla's 18 (5), with 57% of the ball against 43%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 2.5.
Levante 3–3 Sevilla, played on 12 Oct 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Levante 46%, the draw 26% and Sevilla 28%.
Full-time: Possession 57%–43%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–2.5, Shots 20–18, Shots on target 8–5, Shots inside box 12–14, Big chances 3–5, Corners 5–2, Saves 2–5, Fouls 7–17, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 2–6, Red cards 0–1.
Yes — both Levante and Sevilla scored, finishing 3–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Levante or draw 73%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes.