How it finished
Troyes beat Lorient 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Lorient at 56% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Troyes 20%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Lorient had 15 shots (6 on target) to Troyes' 11 (2), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.6.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Lorient vs Troyes?
Troyes beat Lorient 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Lorient at 56% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Troyes 20%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Lorient had 15 shots (6 on target) to Troyes' 11 (2), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.6.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Troyes?
Lorient 1–2 Troyes, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lorient 56%, the draw 24% and Troyes 20%.
What were the stats in Lorient vs Troyes?
Full-time: Possession 67%–33%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–1.6, Shots 15–11, Shots on target 6–2, Shots inside box 9–10, Big chances 1–2, Corners 2–5, Saves 0–4, Fouls 9–11, Offsides 0–3.
Did both teams score in Lorient vs Troyes?
Yes — both Lorient and Troyes scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Lorient vs Troyes right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lorient or draw 80%, it finished Troyes won (20% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes.