Spain vs Czechia prediction — UEFA Nations League · Sat 3 Oct · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Sat 3 Oct · 19:45 UK
Spain 91Draw 8Czechia 2
Our call before kickoff
91%
Spain to win
Landed
3.3
Goals expected
Full time
Final 3–1
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
77%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
24%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
65%

How it finished

Spain beat Czechia 3–1. Bawler's model had Spain in front at 91% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 4.

What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callSpain to win 91%Spain won (91% called)
Total goals3.34
Both teams to score24%Yes

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

SpainCzechia
3.1
Goals+2.8
0.3
SpainCzechia
0.7
Goals+0.6
0.1
SpainCzechia
2.3
Goals+2.2
0.2

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first.

MarketProbability
Over 1.5 goals85%
Both teams to score — no76%
Over 2.5 goals65%

First half — what we expected

Spain
74%
to score before half-time
Czechia
12%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+2.8 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Spain 4 · Draws 1 · Czechia 0

Head to head

Jun 2022Spain 2–0 Czechia
Jun 2022Czechia 2–2 Spain
Jun 2016Spain 1–0 Czechia
Oct 2011Czechia 0–2 Spain
Mar 2011Spain 2–1 Czechia
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Spain vs Czechia?

Spain beat Czechia 3–1. Bawler's model had Spain in front at 91% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 4.

What was the final score in Spain vs Czechia?

Spain 3–1 Czechia, played on 03 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Spain 91%, the draw 8% and Czechia 2%.

Did both teams score in Spain vs Czechia?

Yes — both Spain and Czechia scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 24% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Spain vs Czechia right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Spain to win 91%, it finished Spain won (91% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 24%, it finished Yes.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Spain form →Czechia form →