How it finished
Vanuatu beat New Caledonia 4–1. Bawler's model had Vanuatu in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.4 goals; the match produced 5. Vanuatu had 11 shots (11 on target) to New Caledonia's 4 (4), with 20% of the ball against 80%.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 66%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Vanuatu beat New Caledonia 4–1. Bawler's model had Vanuatu in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.4 goals; the match produced 5. Vanuatu had 11 shots (11 on target) to New Caledonia's 4 (4), with 20% of the ball against 80%.
What was the final score in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Vanuatu 4–1 New Caledonia, played on 27 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Vanuatu 43%, the draw 29% and New Caledonia 28%.
What were the stats in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Full-time: Possession 20%–80%, Shots 11–4, Shots on target 11–4, Corners 5–2.
Did both teams score in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Yes — both Vanuatu and New Caledonia scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 49% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Vanuatu vs New Caledonia right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Vanuatu or draw 72%, it finished Vanuatu won (43% called); Total goals — we said 2.4, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 49%, it finished Yes.