How it finished
Atlético Madrid beat Alavés 2–1. Bawler's model had Atlético Madrid in front at 38% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Alavés had 8 shots (3 on target) to Atlético Madrid's 22 (7), with 32% of the ball against 68%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 2.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid beat Alavés 2–1. Bawler's model had Atlético Madrid in front at 38% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Alavés had 8 shots (3 on target) to Atlético Madrid's 22 (7), with 32% of the ball against 68%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 2.2.
What was the final score in Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Alavés 1–2 Atlético Madrid, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Alavés 36%, the draw 27% and Atlético Madrid 38%.
What were the stats in Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Full-time: Possession 32%–68%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–2.2, Shots 8–22, Shots on target 3–7, Shots inside box 5–11, Big chances 1–2, Corners 0–10, Saves 5–2, Fouls 11–14, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 0–3, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Yes — both Alavés and Atlético Madrid scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Atlético Madrid or draw 64%, it finished Atlético Madrid won (38% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Alavés or draw 62%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.