How it finished
Arouca beat Estrela 1–0. Bawler's model had Arouca in front at 47% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 1 was scored. Arouca had 7 shots (3 on target) to Estrela's 11 (2), with 37% of the ball against 63%. On expected goals it was 0.7 to 1.5, so Estrela created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Arouca vs Estrela?
Arouca beat Estrela 1–0. Bawler's model had Arouca in front at 47% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 1 was scored. Arouca had 7 shots (3 on target) to Estrela's 11 (2), with 37% of the ball against 63%. On expected goals it was 0.7 to 1.5, so Estrela created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Estrela?
Arouca 1–0 Estrela, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Arouca 47%, the draw 25% and Estrela 27%.
What were the stats in Arouca vs Estrela?
Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–1.5, Shots 7–11, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 5–6, Big chances 3–1, Corners 5–6, Saves 2–2, Fouls 10–7, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 5–2.
Did both teams score in Arouca vs Estrela?
No. It finished 1–0, so Estrela failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Arouca vs Estrela right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Arouca or draw 73%, it finished Arouca won (47% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Missed.