How it finished
Aston Villa and Brentford drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Aston Villa at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. Aston Villa had 20 shots (7 on target) to Brentford's 14 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 1.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Aston Villa and Brentford drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Aston Villa at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. Aston Villa had 20 shots (7 on target) to Brentford's 14 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 1.3.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Aston Villa 39%, the draw 26% and Brentford 35%.
What were the stats in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–1.3, Shots 20–14, Shots on target 7–4, Shots inside box 15–12, Big chances 2–2, Corners 2–2, Saves 3–5, Fouls 7–24, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 2–5.
Did both teams score in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Yes — both Aston Villa and Brentford scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Aston Villa vs Brentford right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Aston Villa or draw 65%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Landed.