How it finished
FC Cincinnati beat Atlanta United FC 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Atlanta United FC at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave FC Cincinnati 34%. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 4. Atlanta United FC had 16 shots (6 on target) to FC Cincinnati's 13 (4), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 81%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?
FC Cincinnati beat Atlanta United FC 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Atlanta United FC at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave FC Cincinnati 34%. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 4. Atlanta United FC had 16 shots (6 on target) to FC Cincinnati's 13 (4), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.9.
What was the final score in Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?
Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atlanta United FC 42%, the draw 24% and FC Cincinnati 34%.
What were the stats in Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?
Full-time: Possession 56%–44%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–1.9, Shots 16–13, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 10–11, Big chances 2–3, Corners 5–4, Saves 0–5, Fouls 8–14, Offsides 7–1, Yellow cards 2–3.
Did both teams score in Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?
Yes — both Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 66% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Atlanta United FC or draw 66%, it finished FC Cincinnati won (34% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 66%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 85%, it finished Landed.