How it finished
Stoke City beat Bolton Wanderers 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Bolton Wanderers at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Stoke City 30%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Bolton Wanderers had 30 shots (5 on target) to Stoke City's 9 (4), with 68% of the ball against 32%. On expected goals it was 3.0 to 0.7, so Bolton Wanderers created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
Stoke City beat Bolton Wanderers 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Bolton Wanderers at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Stoke City 30%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Bolton Wanderers had 30 shots (5 on target) to Stoke City's 9 (4), with 68% of the ball against 32%. On expected goals it was 3.0 to 0.7, so Bolton Wanderers created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
Bolton Wanderers 1–2 Stoke City, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bolton Wanderers 43%, the draw 27% and Stoke City 30%.
What were the stats in Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
Full-time: Possession 68%–32%, Expected goals (xG) 3.0–0.7, Shots 30–9, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 23–6, Big chances 6–3, Corners 11–4, Saves 2–4, Fouls 8–9, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 1–1, Red cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
Yes — both Bolton Wanderers and Stoke City scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Bolton Wanderers or draw 70%, it finished Stoke City won (30% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.