Portugal: Primeira LigaSunday 16 Aug, 14:30 UTC

C.D. Nacional vEstoril

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.62 goals expected
C.D. Nacional 38%Draw 30%Estoril 33%
Strongest call
C.D. Nacional or draw
69%

Nacional's superior shot creation—a 0.48 xG advantage—backs the 1X forecast at 69%, suggesting the hosts either win or draw in a low-scoring Primeira Liga contest.

How we get there
C.D. NacionalstepEstoril
1.37Base xG · rolling 26-match1.14
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.55Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.07
Most likely outcomes
C.D. Nacional or draw
69%
Under 2.5 goals
53%
Draw
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

C.D. Nacional average 4.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Estoril average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (17 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

C.D. Nacional fixtures & form →Estoril fixtures & form →

C.D. Nacional vs Estoril — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between C.D. Nacional and Estoril — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: C.D. Nacional 38% · draw 30% · Estoril 33%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

C.D. Nacional predictions & form →Estoril predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.