How it finished
Coventry City beat Newcastle United 4–1. Bawler's model favoured Newcastle United at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Coventry City 32%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 5. Coventry City had 9 shots (6 on target) to Newcastle United's 19 (6), with 33% of the ball against 67%. On expected goals it was 1.4 to 1.9, so Newcastle United created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 81%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Coventry City beat Newcastle United 4–1. Bawler's model favoured Newcastle United at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Coventry City 32%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 5. Coventry City had 9 shots (6 on target) to Newcastle United's 19 (6), with 33% of the ball against 67%. On expected goals it was 1.4 to 1.9, so Newcastle United created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Coventry City 4–1 Newcastle United, played on 12 Oct 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Coventry City 32%, the draw 25% and Newcastle United 42%.
What were the stats in Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Full-time: Possession 33%–67%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.9, Shots 9–19, Shots on target 6–6, Shots inside box 6–11, Big chances 2–3, Corners 2–6, Saves 4–2, Fouls 3–10, Offsides 2–5, Yellow cards 1–1.
Did both teams score in Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Yes — both Coventry City and Newcastle United scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Coventry City vs Newcastle United right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Newcastle United or draw 68%, it finished Coventry City won (32% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 81%, it finished Landed.