How it finished
Derby County and Wrexham drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Derby County had 10 shots (4 on target) to Wrexham's 13 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Derby County vs Wrexham?
Derby County and Wrexham drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Derby County had 10 shots (4 on target) to Wrexham's 13 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.3.
What was the final score in Derby County vs Wrexham?
Derby County 1–1 Wrexham, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Derby County 42%, the draw 27% and Wrexham 31%.
What were the stats in Derby County vs Wrexham?
Full-time: Possession 45%–55%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.3, Shots 10–13, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 4–10, Big chances 0–1, Corners 1–8, Saves 2–3, Fouls 10–6, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 3–2.
Did both teams score in Derby County vs Wrexham?
Yes — both Derby County and Wrexham scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Derby County vs Wrexham right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Derby County or draw 69%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Both teams to score 54%, it finished Landed.