How it finished
Fortuna Sittard beat FC Groningen 3–2. Bawler's model favoured FC Groningen at 60% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Fortuna Sittard 19%. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 5. FC Groningen had 22 shots (2 on target) to Fortuna Sittard's 9 (5), with 68% of the ball against 32%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 0.9, so FC Groningen created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard beat FC Groningen 3–2. Bawler's model favoured FC Groningen at 60% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Fortuna Sittard 19%. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 5. FC Groningen had 22 shots (2 on target) to Fortuna Sittard's 9 (5), with 68% of the ball against 32%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 0.9, so FC Groningen created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
FC Groningen 2–3 Fortuna Sittard, played on 28 Aug 2026 in the NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with FC Groningen 60%, the draw 21% and Fortuna Sittard 19%.
What were the stats in FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Full-time: Possession 68%–32%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–0.9, Shots 22–9, Shots on target 2–5, Shots inside box 16–6, Big chances 2–2, Corners 7–2, Saves 2–1, Fouls 8–8, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 3–3.
Did both teams score in FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — both FC Groningen and Fortuna Sittard scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said FC Groningen to win 60%, it finished Fortuna Sittard won (19% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 85%, it finished Landed.