How it finished
Lille and Paris Saint-Germain drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Paris Saint-Germain at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Lille had 9 shots (4 on target) to Paris Saint-Germain's 18 (4), with 27% of the ball against 73%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 67%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Lille and Paris Saint-Germain drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Paris Saint-Germain at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Lille had 9 shots (4 on target) to Paris Saint-Germain's 18 (4), with 27% of the ball against 73%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.3.
What was the final score in Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Lille 2–2 Paris Saint-Germain, played on 28 Aug 2026 in the FRANCE: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lille 29%, the draw 26% and Paris Saint-Germain 44%.
What were the stats in Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Full-time: Possession 27%–73%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–1.3, Shots 9–18, Shots on target 4–4, Shots inside box 5–7, Big chances 2–4, Corners 0–5, Saves 2–2, Fouls 11–7, Offsides 5–0, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Yes — both Lille and Paris Saint-Germain scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Paris Saint-Germain or draw 71%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.