How it finished
Manchester City beat Liverpool 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Liverpool at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Manchester City 35%. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Liverpool had 13 shots (6 on target) to Manchester City's 15 (4), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 0.9 to 1.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Manchester City beat Liverpool 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Liverpool at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Manchester City 35%. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Liverpool had 13 shots (6 on target) to Manchester City's 15 (4), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 0.9 to 1.3.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Liverpool 39%, the draw 26% and Manchester City 35%.
What were the stats in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Full-time: Possession 35%–65%, Expected goals (xG) 0.9–1.3, Shots 13–15, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 6–8, Big chances 0–3, Corners 5–6, Saves 1–6, Fouls 19–14, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 4–2, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
No. It finished 0–3, so Liverpool failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Liverpool or draw 65%, it finished Manchester City won (35% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Landed.