How it finished
Bayer Leverkusen beat Mainz 4–3. Bawler's model favoured Mainz at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Bayer Leverkusen 37%. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 7. Mainz had 23 shots (5 on target) to Bayer Leverkusen's 16 (7), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 2.9 to 1.7, so Mainz created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 82%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen beat Mainz 4–3. Bawler's model favoured Mainz at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Bayer Leverkusen 37%. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 7. Mainz had 23 shots (5 on target) to Bayer Leverkusen's 16 (7), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 2.9 to 1.7, so Mainz created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Mainz 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Germany: Bundesliga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Mainz 38%, the draw 24% and Bayer Leverkusen 37%.
What were the stats in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 2.9–1.7, Shots 23–16, Shots on target 5–7, Shots inside box 17–12, Big chances 2–4, Corners 4–3, Saves 3–1, Fouls 11–10, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 3–1.
Did both teams score in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — both Mainz and Bayer Leverkusen scored, finishing 3–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Mainz or draw 63%, it finished Bayer Leverkusen won (37% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 65%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Landed.