What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
No first-half forecast for this fixture.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
Bawler's model rates this match: Motherwell are favoured (59% win probability vs 17% for Aberdeen, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Motherwell 1-0 Aberdeen (12.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Motherwell 59%, the draw 24% and Aberdeen 17%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Motherwell expecting 1.82 goals and Aberdeen 0.89.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 51%.