Napoli beat Frosinone 3–0. Bawler's model had Napoli in front at 53% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Napoli had 19 shots (8 on target) to Frosinone's 17 (1), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 2.8 to 1.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Napoli beat Frosinone 3–0. Bawler's model had Napoli in front at 53% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Napoli had 19 shots (8 on target) to Frosinone's 17 (1), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 2.8 to 1.0.
Napoli 3–0 Frosinone, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Napoli 53%, the draw 24% and Frosinone 22%.
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 2.8–1.0, Shots 19–17, Shots on target 8–1, Shots inside box 13–9, Big chances 4–0, Corners 6–4, Saves 1–5, Fouls 8–12, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 2–0.
No. It finished 3–0, so Frosinone failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Napoli or draw 78%, it finished Napoli won (53% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Napoli to win 53%, it finished Landed.