Napoli vs Frosinone prediction — Serie A · Sat 10 Oct · 19:45 UK

Serie A · Sat 10 Oct · 19:45 UK
Napoli 53Draw 24Frosinone 22
Our call before kickoff
78%
Napoli or draw
Landed
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 3–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
80%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
56%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
56%

How it finished

Napoli beat Frosinone 3–0. Bawler's model had Napoli in front at 53% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Napoli had 19 shots (8 on target) to Frosinone's 17 (1), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 2.8 to 1.0.

NapoliFull-time statsFrosinone
51%Possession49%
2.8Expected goals (xG)1.0
19Shots17
8Shots on target1
13Shots inside box9
4Big chances0
6Corners4
1Saves5
8Fouls12
1Offsides2
2Yellow cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callNapoli or draw 78%Napoli won (53% called)
Total goals2.93
Both teams to score56%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 79%Landed
Second pickNapoli to win 53%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

NapoliFrosinone
1.8
Goals+0.7
1.1
24.0
Shots+7.3
16.7
6.6
On target+0.3
6.3
7.6
Corners+1.5
6.1
NapoliFrosinone
0.6
Goals
0.5
10.6
Shots+3.4
7.2
2.8
On target+0.3
3.1
3.6
Corners+0.7
2.9
NapoliFrosinone
1.3
Goals+0.7
0.6
13.4
Shots+3.9
9.5
3.8
On target+0.6
3.2
4.0
Corners+0.8
3.3

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Napoli to score84%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Frosinone to score67%
Under 3.5 goals66%

First half — what we expected

Napoli
57%
to score before half-time
Frosinone
54%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%

NapoliFrosinone
10.61st-half shots7.2
2.81st-half shots on target3.1
3.61st-half corners2.9

First-half chances

57%Chance of 10+ shots23%
38%Chance of 12+ shots11%
73%Chance of 2+ shots on target77%
31%Chance of 4+ shots on target37%
65%Chance of 3+ corners52%
30%Chance of 5+ corners19%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Napoli10.613.4
Shots · Frosinone7.29.5
Shots on target · Napoli2.83.8
Shots on target · Frosinone3.13.2
Corners · Napoli3.64.0
Corners · Frosinone2.93.3
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Napoli form (last 6)L L L W D W
Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.7 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Napoli 3 · Draws 1 · Frosinone 1
Frosinone in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

Apr 2024Napoli 2–2 Frosinone
Dec 2023Napoli 0–4 Frosinone
Aug 2023Frosinone 1–3 Napoli
Apr 2019Frosinone 0–2 Napoli
Dec 2018Napoli 4–0 Frosinone
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Napoli vs Frosinone?

Napoli beat Frosinone 3–0. Bawler's model had Napoli in front at 53% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Napoli had 19 shots (8 on target) to Frosinone's 17 (1), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 2.8 to 1.0.

What was the final score in Napoli vs Frosinone?

Napoli 3–0 Frosinone, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Napoli 53%, the draw 24% and Frosinone 22%.

What were the stats in Napoli vs Frosinone?

Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 2.8–1.0, Shots 19–17, Shots on target 8–1, Shots inside box 13–9, Big chances 4–0, Corners 6–4, Saves 1–5, Fouls 8–12, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 2–0.

Did both teams score in Napoli vs Frosinone?

No. It finished 3–0, so Frosinone failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Napoli vs Frosinone right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Napoli or draw 78%, it finished Napoli won (53% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Napoli to win 53%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Napoli form →Frosinone form →