USA: MLSSunday 23 Aug, 20:30 UTC

New England Revolution vNew York City FC

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.80 goals expected
New England Revolution 41%Draw 31%New York City FC 28%
How we get there
New England RevolutionstepNew York City FC
1.55Base xG · rolling 26-match1.24
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.55Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.24

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

New England Revolution average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). New York City average 3.4 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
5
2
1
1
9
12
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Harry Kane
New England Revolution · Bayern Munich
60%
To score
Bukayo Saka
New England Revolution · Arsenal
42%
To score
Jude Bellingham
New England Revolution · Real Madrid
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

New England Revolution vs New York City — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between New England Revolution and New York City — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: New England Revolution 41% · draw 31% · New York City 28%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.