How it finished
Orlando City SC beat Columbus Crew 3–2. Bawler's model had Orlando City SC in front at 42% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 5. Orlando City SC had 20 shots (8 on target) to Columbus Crew's 27 (15), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 1.7 to 3.1, so Columbus Crew created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 81%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?
Orlando City SC beat Columbus Crew 3–2. Bawler's model had Orlando City SC in front at 42% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 5. Orlando City SC had 20 shots (8 on target) to Columbus Crew's 27 (15), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 1.7 to 3.1, so Columbus Crew created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?
Orlando City SC 3–2 Columbus Crew, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Orlando City SC 42%, the draw 24% and Columbus Crew 34%.
What were the stats in Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?
Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–3.1, Shots 20–27, Shots on target 8–15, Shots inside box 13–18, Big chances 4–8, Corners 2–11, Saves 12–5, Fouls 14–11, Offsides 1–5, Yellow cards 4–2.
Did both teams score in Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?
Yes — both Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew scored, finishing 3–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Orlando City SC or draw 66%, it finished Orlando City SC won (42% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 65%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Landed.