Millwall beat Preston North End 1–0. Bawler's model had Millwall in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 1 was scored. Preston North End had 12 shots (1 on target) to Millwall's 11 (3), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Millwall beat Preston North End 1–0. Bawler's model had Millwall in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 1 was scored. Preston North End had 12 shots (1 on target) to Millwall's 11 (3), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.1.
Preston North End 0–1 Millwall, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Preston North End 32%, the draw 25% and Millwall 43%.
Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–1.1, Shots 12–11, Shots on target 1–3, Shots inside box 7–7, Big chances 1–2, Corners 4–4, Saves 2–1, Fouls 8–11, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 1–2.
No. It finished 0–1, so Preston North End failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Millwall or draw 68%, it finished Millwall won (43% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Missed.