Racing Santander beat Elche 3–2. Bawler's model had Racing Santander in front at 48% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Racing Santander had 13 shots (6 on target) to Elche's 18 (7), with 40% of the ball against 60%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 1.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Racing Santander beat Elche 3–2. Bawler's model had Racing Santander in front at 48% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Racing Santander had 13 shots (6 on target) to Elche's 18 (7), with 40% of the ball against 60%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 1.1.
Racing Santander 3–2 Elche, played on 28 Aug 2026 in the SPAIN: LaLiga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Racing Santander 48%, the draw 26% and Elche 26%.
Full-time: Possession 40%–60%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–1.1, Shots 13–18, Shots on target 6–7, Shots inside box 9–9, Big chances 5–1, Corners 5–10, Saves 5–3, Fouls 17–19, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
Yes — both Racing Santander and Elche scored, finishing 3–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Racing Santander or draw 74%, it finished Racing Santander won (48% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.