How it finished
Rio Ave beat C.D. Nacional 3–2. Bawler's model had Rio Ave in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Rio Ave had 11 shots (7 on target) to C.D. Nacional's 13 (5), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 1.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?
Rio Ave beat C.D. Nacional 3–2. Bawler's model had Rio Ave in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Rio Ave had 11 shots (7 on target) to C.D. Nacional's 13 (5), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 1.2.
What was the final score in Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?
Rio Ave 3–2 C.D. Nacional, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Rio Ave 37%, the draw 27% and C.D. Nacional 36%.
What were the stats in Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?
Full-time: Possession 56%–44%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–1.2, Shots 11–13, Shots on target 7–5, Shots inside box 6–9, Big chances 3–4, Corners 8–8, Saves 3–3, Fouls 7–17, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 4–0, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?
Yes — both Rio Ave and C.D. Nacional scored, finishing 3–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Rio Ave or draw 64%, it finished Rio Ave won (37% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.