How it finished
Southampton beat Portsmouth 1–0. Bawler's model had Southampton in front at 57% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 1 was scored. Southampton had 7 shots (3 on target) to Portsmouth's 15 (2), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 0.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Southampton beat Portsmouth 1–0. Bawler's model had Southampton in front at 57% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 1 was scored. Southampton had 7 shots (3 on target) to Portsmouth's 15 (2), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 0.7.
What was the final score in Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Southampton 57%, the draw 23% and Portsmouth 19%.
What were the stats in Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–0.7, Shots 7–15, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 6–9, Big chances 4–0, Corners 2–4, Saves 2–2, Fouls 11–15, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 5–3, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Southampton vs Portsmouth?
No. It finished 1–0, so Portsmouth failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Southampton vs Portsmouth right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Southampton or draw 81%, it finished Southampton won (57% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Both teams to score 55%, it finished Missed.