How it finished
United States beat Mexico 3–0. Bawler's model had United States in front at 38% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals and the match produced 3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won United States vs Mexico?
United States beat Mexico 3–0. Bawler's model had United States in front at 38% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals and the match produced 3.
What was the final score in United States vs Mexico?
United States 3–0 Mexico, played on 04 Oct 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with United States 38%, the draw 25% and Mexico 37%.
Did both teams score in United States vs Mexico?
No. It finished 3–0, so Mexico failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for United States vs Mexico right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said United States or draw 63%, it finished United States won (38% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Landed.