How it finished
Burnley beat Watford 4–0. Bawler's model had Burnley in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Watford had 14 shots (6 on target) to Burnley's 17 (8), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Watford vs Burnley?
Burnley beat Watford 4–0. Bawler's model had Burnley in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Watford had 14 shots (6 on target) to Burnley's 17 (8), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.8.
What was the final score in Watford vs Burnley?
Watford 0–4 Burnley, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Watford 36%, the draw 27% and Burnley 37%.
What were the stats in Watford vs Burnley?
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–1.8, Shots 14–17, Shots on target 6–8, Shots inside box 7–12, Big chances 1–3, Corners 6–2, Saves 4–6, Fouls 8–10, Offsides 2–5.
Did both teams score in Watford vs Burnley?
No. It finished 0–4, so Watford failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Watford vs Burnley right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Burnley or draw 64%, it finished Burnley won (37% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Both teams to score 55%, it finished Missed.