Birmingham City beat West Bromwich Albion 1–0. Bawler's model favoured West Bromwich Albion at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Birmingham City 33%. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. West Bromwich Albion had 14 shots (2 on target) to Birmingham City's 15 (7), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 2.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 66%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Birmingham City beat West Bromwich Albion 1–0. Bawler's model favoured West Bromwich Albion at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Birmingham City 33%. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. West Bromwich Albion had 14 shots (2 on target) to Birmingham City's 15 (7), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 2.5.
West Bromwich Albion 0–1 Birmingham City, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with West Bromwich Albion 38%, the draw 28% and Birmingham City 33%.
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–2.5, Shots 14–15, Shots on target 2–7, Shots inside box 9–13, Big chances 2–3, Corners 7–9, Saves 6–2, Fouls 8–12, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 2–4.
No. It finished 0–1, so West Bromwich Albion failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said West Bromwich Albion or draw 67%, it finished Birmingham City won (33% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 72%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Both teams to score 52%, it finished Missed.