USA: MLSSunday 23 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Austin FC vPhiladelphia Union

Most likely scoreline
1–1
11% of the time · 3.05 goals expected
Austin FC 31%Draw 29%Philadelphia Union 40%
How we get there
Austin FCstepPhiladelphia Union
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.64
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.42Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.64

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Austin average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Philadelphia Union average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
8
6
3
1
1
7
11
9
5
2
1
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
4
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Austin FC fixtures & form →Philadelphia Union fixtures & form →

Austin vs Philadelphia Union — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Austin and Philadelphia Union — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Austin 31% · draw 29% · Philadelphia Union 40%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Austin predictions & form →Philadelphia Union predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.