England at World Cup 2026

Bawler's full forecast for England at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — placed in Group L alongside Croatia, Ghana, and Panama. Derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the entire tournament, updated each morning and cryptographically anchored to Bitcoin before kickoff.

FIFA Ranking · #4

> path_to_trophy()

England's path to the trophy

Probability England reaches each stage of the tournament, across 10,000 simulated tournaments.

Escape group

62.2%

Round of 16

47.0%

Quarter-finals

27.8%

Semi-finals

16.1%

Final

9.13%

Win it all

5.11%

> group_l()

Group L forecast

Top two from this group advance directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also progress to the Round of 32.

Team	FIFA	Top 2	R16	QF	SF	Winner
Croatia	#9	63.3%	44.9%	25.0%	14.3%	3.98%
England	#4	62.2%	47.0%	27.8%	16.1%	5.11%
Panama	#40	47.9%	29.8%	12.5%	5.39%	0.81%
Ghana	#65	26.6%	15.1%	5.17%	1.78%	0.12%

> fixtures()

England's World Cup fixtures

1 match — Bawler's free Banker pick on each.

17 Jun, 21:00H v Croatia

England v Croatia

Banker: Over 1.5 Goals73%

> trust = math

Why this forecast is honest

Every morning at 07:30 UK we snapshot the day's predictions and publish a SHA-256 fingerprint of that snapshot to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps. The proof lands publicly before any of that day's matches kick off, and anyone can independently verify, offline, that the numbers above weren't edited after results came in.

See /verify for the proof files, a 30-second verification walkthrough, and an explanation of why no tipster site that edits its history could fake this if they tried.