How it finished
Arsenal beat Leeds United 2–1. Bawler's model had Arsenal in front at 63% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Arsenal had 13 shots (6 on target) to Leeds United's 11 (5), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 2.6 to 0.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Arsenal beat Leeds United 2–1. Bawler's model had Arsenal in front at 63% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Arsenal had 13 shots (6 on target) to Leeds United's 11 (5), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 2.6 to 0.7.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Arsenal 2–1 Leeds United, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Arsenal 63%, the draw 23% and Leeds United 15%.
What were the stats in Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Full-time: Possession 58%–42%, Expected goals (xG) 2.6–0.7, Shots 13–11, Shots on target 6–5, Shots inside box 8–7, Big chances 4–3, Corners 2–4, Saves 4–4, Fouls 12–20, Offsides 7–4, Yellow cards 1–4.
Did both teams score in Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Yes — both Arsenal and Leeds United scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Arsenal vs Leeds United right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Arsenal to win 63%, it finished Arsenal won (63% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 51%, it finished Landed.