How it finished
FC Groningen beat Excelsior 5–1. Bawler's model favoured Excelsior at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave FC Groningen 35%. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 6. Excelsior had 16 shots (2 on target) to FC Groningen's 14 (9), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 2.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
FC Groningen beat Excelsior 5–1. Bawler's model favoured Excelsior at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave FC Groningen 35%. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 6. Excelsior had 16 shots (2 on target) to FC Groningen's 14 (9), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 2.8.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
Excelsior 1–5 FC Groningen, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Excelsior 40%, the draw 25% and FC Groningen 35%.
What were the stats in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–2.8, Shots 16–14, Shots on target 2–9, Shots inside box 11–13, Big chances 1–6, Corners 3–6, Saves 5–1, Fouls 10–12, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 0–2.
Did both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
Yes — both Excelsior and FC Groningen scored, finishing 1–5. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Excelsior vs FC Groningen right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Excelsior or draw 65%, it finished FC Groningen won (35% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Landed.