How it finished
St Mirren beat Kilmarnock 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Kilmarnock at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave St Mirren 33%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Kilmarnock had 9 shots (2 on target) to St Mirren's 10 (1), with 47% of the ball against 53%. Expected goals finished 0.4 to 1.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Kilmarnock vs St Mirren?
St Mirren beat Kilmarnock 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Kilmarnock at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave St Mirren 33%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Kilmarnock had 9 shots (2 on target) to St Mirren's 10 (1), with 47% of the ball against 53%. Expected goals finished 0.4 to 1.1.
What was the final score in Kilmarnock vs St Mirren?
Kilmarnock 0–1 St Mirren, played on 02 Sept 2026 in the SCOTLAND: Premiership. Bawler's model had gone into it with Kilmarnock 40%, the draw 27% and St Mirren 33%.
What were the stats in Kilmarnock vs St Mirren?
Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 0.4–1.1, Shots 9–10, Shots on target 2–1, Shots inside box 4–7, Big chances 0–1, Corners 7–3, Saves 0–2, Fouls 12–13, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Kilmarnock vs St Mirren?
No. It finished 0–1, so Kilmarnock failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Kilmarnock vs St Mirren right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Kilmarnock or draw 67%, it finished St Mirren won (33% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Missed.