How it finished
Lens beat Lyon 2–1. Bawler's model had Lens in front at 49% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals and the match produced 3. Lens had 15 shots (7 on target) to Lyon's 13 (5), with 48% of the ball against 52%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Lens vs Lyon?
Lens beat Lyon 2–1. Bawler's model had Lens in front at 49% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals and the match produced 3. Lens had 15 shots (7 on target) to Lyon's 13 (5), with 48% of the ball against 52%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.0.
What was the final score in Lens vs Lyon?
Lens 2–1 Lyon, played on 09 Oct 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lens 49%, the draw 24% and Lyon 27%.
What were the stats in Lens vs Lyon?
Full-time: Possession 48%–52%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.0, Shots 15–13, Shots on target 7–5, Shots inside box 12–9, Big chances 2–1, Corners 7–4, Saves 4–5, Fouls 13–12, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 1–1, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Lens vs Lyon?
Yes — both Lens and Lyon scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Lens vs Lyon right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lens or draw 73%, it finished Lens won (49% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished Yes.