How it finished
NEC Nijmegen beat PEC Zwolle 3–1. Bawler's model had NEC Nijmegen in front at 53% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 4. PEC Zwolle had 9 shots (2 on target) to NEC Nijmegen's 8 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. On expected goals it was 2.0 to 2.0, so PEC Zwolle created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen beat PEC Zwolle 3–1. Bawler's model had NEC Nijmegen in front at 53% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 4. PEC Zwolle had 9 shots (2 on target) to NEC Nijmegen's 8 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. On expected goals it was 2.0 to 2.0, so PEC Zwolle created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
PEC Zwolle 1–3 NEC Nijmegen, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with PEC Zwolle 24%, the draw 23% and NEC Nijmegen 53%.
What were the stats in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–2.0, Shots 9–8, Shots on target 2–4, Shots inside box 7–6, Big chances 2–3, Corners 6–7, Saves 1–1, Fouls 17–12, Offsides 4–0, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — both PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said NEC Nijmegen or draw 76%, it finished NEC Nijmegen won (53% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said NEC Nijmegen to win 53%, it finished Landed.